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Süper Lig26 Oct 19:00 TRT

Çaykur Rizespor×Trabzonspor

MATCH FINISHEDÇaykur Rizespor 3–4 TrabzonsporHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (26 Oct 18:29 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Çaykur Rizespor: 20.5%fair odds 4.87
  • FT X · draw: 25.4%fair odds 3.94
  • FT 2 · Trabzonspor: 54.1%fair odds 1.85

Double chance

  • 1X · Çaykur Rizespor doesn't lose:
    45.9%fair odds 2.18
    X2 · Trabzonspor doesn't lose:
    79.5%fair odds 1.26
    12 · no draw:
    74.6%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    41.9%fair odds 2.39
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.1%fair odds 1.72

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.8%fair odds 1.70
    BTTS No:
    41.2%fair odds 2.43

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.4%fair odds 3.65
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.6%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Çaykur RizesporTrabzonspor
  1. Goal: Gennaro Borrelli12'
  2. Yellow card: Zakaria Ariss14'
  3. Goal: Gennaro Borrelli32'
  4. 38'Yellow card: Fabinho
  5. 49'Goal: Melih Kabasakal
  6. 51'Goal: Aral Simsir
  7. 55'Yellow card: Melih Kabasakal
  8. 57'Goal: Franculino Djú
  9. Yellow card: Gennaro Borrelli60'
  10. Goal: Qazim Laçi68'
  11. 83'Goal: Franculino Djú

Statistics

Çaykur RizesporTrabzonspor
9Shotsadvantaged: 14
6Shots on targetadvantaged: 7
4Corners4
%47Possessionadvantaged: %53
13Fouls14
Starting XI and formation

Çaykur Rizespor4-1-4-1

  1. 1Yahia Fofana
  2. 2Modibo Sagnan
  3. 3Siaka Bakayoko
  4. 4Taylan Antalyali
  5. 5Zakaria Ariss
  6. 6Mithat Pala
  7. 7Qazim Laçi
  8. 8Ibrahim Olawoyin
  9. 9Emrecan Bulut
  10. 10Adedire Mebude
  11. 11Gennaro Borrelli

Trabzonspor4-1-4-1

  1. 1André Onana
  2. 2Stefan Savic
  3. 3Chibuike Nwaiwu
  4. 4Fabinho
  5. 5Mustafa Eskihellac
  6. 6Wagner Pina
  7. 7Ernest Muçi
  8. 8Melih Kabasakal
  9. 9Aral Simsir
  10. 10Mohamed Salah
  11. 11Franculino Djú

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultTrabzonspor win%54it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%58it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%59it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.12–1.90 · score: 3–4

Form and standings

Çaykur RizesporTrabzonspor
League table13. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 4L advantaged: 4. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 2L
Last 5 matchesLLDWL0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWLW2.4 pts/match

Goals

Çaykur RizesporTrabzonspor
Expected goals1.12advantaged: 1.90

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 4/5

Players

Çaykur RizesporTrabzonspor
Starting XI · official4-1-4-14-2-3-1
ScorerAli Sowe2 goalsMohamed Salah8 goals
Most cardsAttila Mocsi3 yellowChibuike Nwaiwu3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ÇAYKUR RIZESPOR

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,2

IN FAVOUR OF TRABZONSPOR

  • Trabzonspor's attack is %35 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Trabzonspor concedes %13 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1488 – 1643: Trabzonspor ahead by 155 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Çaykur Rizespor -0,6, Trabzonspor +2,6
  • Çaykur Rizespor concedes %9 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.