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Bundesliga24 Oct 19:30 TRT

Borussia Dortmund×Eintracht Frankfurt

MATCH FINISHEDBorussia Dortmund 1–0 Eintracht FrankfurtHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 18:44 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Borussia Dortmund: 72.8%fair odds 1.37
  • FT X · draw: 17.1%fair odds 5.84
  • FT 2 · Eintracht Frankfurt: 10.1%fair odds 9.93

Double chance

  • 1X · Borussia Dortmund doesn't lose:
    89.9%fair odds 1.11
    X2 · Eintracht Frankfurt doesn't lose:
    27.2%fair odds 3.68
    12 · no draw:
    82.9%fair odds 1.21

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    30.6%fair odds 3.27
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    69.4%fair odds 1.44

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.5%fair odds 1.74
    BTTS No:
    42.5%fair odds 2.35

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    21.2%fair odds 4.71
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    78.8%fair odds 1.27

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
  1. 58'Yellow card: Nnamdi Collins
  2. 63'Yellow card: Farès Chaïbi
  3. Goal: Maximilian Beierassist Jobe Bellingham80'

Statistics

Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
advantaged: 18Shots8
advantaged: 5Shots on target3
advantaged: 13Corners1
advantaged: %58Possession%42
7Fouls12
advantaged: 1.72Expected goals (xG)0.85

Shot map

Borussia Dortmund

18 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.72

Eintracht Frankfurt

8 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.85

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Borussia Dortmund3-4-2-1

  1. 1Gregor Kobel
  2. 2Nico Schlotterbeck
  3. 3Ramy Bensebaini
  4. 4Waldemar Anton
  5. 5Felix Nmecha
  6. 6Joey Veerman
  7. 7Daniel Svensson
  8. 8Julian Ryerson
  9. 9Serhou Guirassy
  10. 10Fábio Silva
  11. 11Marcel Sabitzer

Eintracht Frankfurt4-4-2

  1. 1Noah Atubolu
  2. 2Lilian Brassier
  3. 3Robin Koch
  4. 4Elias Baum
  5. 5Nnamdi Collins
  6. 6Noël Aséko
  7. 7Raphael Onyedika
  8. 8Farès Chaïbi
  9. 9Ritsu Doan
  10. 10Younes Ebnoutalib
  11. 11Jonathan Burkardt

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBorussia Dortmund win%73it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%31most likely: 3 or more goals %69
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%43most likely: Both teams score %57

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.65–0.94 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.54–0.77 · score: 1–0

Form and standings

Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
League tableadvantaged: 2. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 0L 13. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DDWWW2.2 pts/matchWLDWL1.4 pts/match

Goals

Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.650.94

Match total 3.6

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/51/5
Luck+2.2 puan+1.0 puan

Players

Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-4-2
ScorerSerhou Guirassy2 goalsYounes Ebnoutalib5 goals
Most dangerousSerhou Guirassyexpected goals 2.7Younes Ebnoutalibexpected goals 3.3
FinisherSerhou Guirassy−0.7 goals vs expectationYounes Ebnoutalib+1.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperGregor Kobelconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expectedNoah Atuboluconceded 0.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsSamuele Inácio1 redRaphael Onyedika4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BORUSSIA DORTMUND

  • Borussia Dortmund concedes %25 fewer goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,83 per match, away sides 1,48
  • Borussia Dortmund's attack is %13 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1674 – 1504: Borussia Dortmund ahead by 170 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt concedes %8 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Borussia Dortmund +1,19, Eintracht Frankfurt -0,48
  • Eintracht Frankfurt's attack is %6 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.