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Süper Lig26 Oct 19:00 TRT

Beşiktaş×İstanbul Başakşehir

MATCH FINISHEDBeşiktaş 2–0 İstanbul BaşakşehirHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (26 Oct 18:29 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Beşiktaş: 47.6%fair odds 2.10
  • FT X · draw: 26.5%fair odds 3.78
  • FT 2 · İstanbul Başakşehir: 25.9%fair odds 3.86

Double chance

  • 1X · Beşiktaş doesn't lose:
    74.1%fair odds 1.35
    X2 · İstanbul Başakşehir doesn't lose:
    52.4%fair odds 1.91
    12 · no draw:
    73.5%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    41.1%fair odds 2.43
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.9%fair odds 1.70

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.5%fair odds 1.63
    BTTS No:
    38.5%fair odds 2.60

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.0%fair odds 3.70
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
  1. 37'Yellow card: Ousseynou Ba
  2. 59'Yellow card: Michal Karbownik
  3. Yellow card: Leandro Trossard61'
  4. Goal: Oh Hyeon-Gyu76'
  5. Goal: Junior Olaitan89'

Statistics

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
advantaged: 17Shots9
advantaged: 6Shots on target4
advantaged: 5Corners2
advantaged: %65Possession%35
9Fouls17
Starting XI and formation

Beşiktaş4-1-4-1

  1. 1Alexander Nübel
  2. 2Emir Han Topcu
  3. 3Emmanuel Agbadou
  4. 4Salih Özcan
  5. 5Ridvan Yilmaz
  6. 6Amir Murillo
  7. 7Junior Olaitan
  8. 8Wilfred Ndidi
  9. 9Leandro Trossard
  10. 10Václav Cerný
  11. 11Dusan Vlahovic

İstanbul Başakşehir4-2-3-1

  1. 1Muhammed Sengezer
  2. 2Ousseynou Ba
  3. 3Emin Bayram
  4. 4Saba Kharebashvili
  5. 5Michal Karbownik
  6. 6Umut Bozok
  7. 7Umut Günes
  8. 8Olivier Kemen
  9. 9Eldor Shomurodov
  10. 10Andreas Skov Olsen
  11. 11Yusuf Sari

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBeşiktaş win%48it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%41most likely: 3 or more goals %59
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%38most likely: Both teams score %62

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.78–1.28 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
League tableadvantaged: 6. place 15 pts · 5W 0D 3L 12. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLWW1.8 pts/matchWDWLL1.4 pts/match

Goals

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.781.28

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5

Players

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
Starting XI · official4-1-4-14-2-3-1
ScorerDusan Vlahovic6 goalsEldor Shomurodov7 goals
Most cardsEmir Han Topcu3 yellowOlivier Kemen3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BEŞIKTAŞ

  • Beşiktaş's attack is %29 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,2
  • Beşiktaş concedes %12 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1619 – 1579: Beşiktaş ahead by 40 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Beşiktaş +0,4, İstanbul Başakşehir -0,2

IN FAVOUR OF İSTANBUL BAŞAKŞEHIR

  • İstanbul Başakşehir's attack is %22 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • İstanbul Başakşehir concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.