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Premier League24 Oct 14:30 TRT

Aston Villa FC×Manchester City FC

MATCH FINISHEDAston Villa 2–1 Manchester CityHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 13:11 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Aston Villa: 22.7%fair odds 4.41
  • FT X · draw: 26.0%fair odds 3.84
  • FT 2 · Manchester City: 51.3%fair odds 1.95

Double chance

  • 1X · Aston Villa doesn't lose:
    48.7%fair odds 2.05
    X2 · Manchester City doesn't lose:
    77.3%fair odds 1.29
    12 · no draw:
    74.0%fair odds 1.35

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.9%fair odds 2.28
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.1%fair odds 1.78

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.0%fair odds 1.72
    BTTS No:
    42.0%fair odds 2.38

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.2%fair odds 3.55
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    71.8%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Aston VillaManchester City
  1. Goal: Nicolas Jacksonassist John McGinn6'
  2. 32'Yellow card: Marc Guéhi
  3. 38'Yellow card: Rayan Cherki
  4. 52'Goal: Erling Haalandassist Iliman Ndiaye
  5. Yellow card: Johan Manzambi54'
  6. Yellow card: Matty Cash55'
  7. Goal: Nicolas Jacksonassist Ibrahim Mbaye60'
  8. 74'Yellow card: Elliot Anderson
  9. 76'Yellow card: Ryan McAidoo
  10. Yellow card: Brian Madjo83'
  11. Yellow card: Emiliano Buendía90+5'

Statistics

Aston VillaManchester City
8Shotsadvantaged: 15
2Shots on targetadvantaged: 7
4Cornersadvantaged: 7
%37Possessionadvantaged: %63
21Fouls17
0.65Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.29

Shot map

Aston Villa

8 shots · 2 goals · xG 0.65

Manchester City

15 shots · 1 goals · xG 2.29

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Aston Villa4-2-3-1

  1. 1Zion Suzuki
  2. 2Pau Torres
  3. 3Victor Lindelöf
  4. 4Ian Maatsen
  5. 5Matty Cash
  6. 6John McGinn
  7. 7João Gomes
  8. 8Boubacar Kamara
  9. 9Nicolas Jackson
  10. 10Johan Manzambi
  11. 11Alysson

Manchester City4-2-3-1

  1. 1Gianluigi Donnarumma
  2. 2Rúben Dias
  3. 3Marc Guéhi
  4. 4Josko Gvardiol
  5. 5Abdukodir Khusanov
  6. 6Rayan Cherki
  7. 7Enzo Fernández
  8. 8Elliot Anderson
  9. 9Erling Haaland
  10. 10Jérémy Doku
  11. 11Iliman Ndiaye

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultAston Villa win%23most likely: Manchester City win %51
3+ goals?3 or more goals%56it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%58it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.14–1.79 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.54–1.90 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

Aston VillaManchester City
League table12. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L advantaged: 1. place 21 pts · 7W 0D 0L
Last 5 matchesWDWLD1.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWW3.0 pts/match

Goals

Aston VillaManchester City
Expected goals1.14advantaged: 1.79

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck0.0 puan+7.2 puan

Players

Aston VillaManchester City
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerJohan Manzambi2 goalsErling Haaland8 goals
Most dangerousNicolas Jacksonexpected goals 1.7Erling Haalandexpected goals 5.3
Finisher—Erling Haaland+2.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperZion Suzukiconceded 0.3 goals fewer than expectedGianluigi Donnarummaconceded 3.4 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJoão Gomes2 yellow, 1 redPhil Foden1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ASTON VILLA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,55 per match, away sides 1,25

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER CITY

  • Manchester City's attack is %32 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Manchester City concedes %16 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1553 – 1717: Manchester City ahead by 165 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Aston Villa +0,16, Manchester City +0,78

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.