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Şampiyonlar Ligi20 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · SANDRO SCHÄRER

AS Roma׊K Slovan Bratislava

MATCH FINISHEDRoma 4–0 ŠK Slovan BratislavaHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (20 Oct 21:45 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Roma: 86.3%fair odds 1.16
  • FT X · draw: 9.4%fair odds 10.65
  • FT 2 · ŠK Slovan Bratislava: 4.3%fair odds 23.42

Double chance

  • 1X · Roma doesn't lose:
    95.7%fair odds 1.04
    X2 · ŠK Slovan Bratislava doesn't lose:
    13.7%fair odds 7.32
    12 · no draw:
    90.6%fair odds 1.10

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    26.9%fair odds 3.72
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    73.1%fair odds 1.37

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    44.4%fair odds 2.25
    BTTS No:
    55.6%fair odds 1.80

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    18.1%fair odds 5.53
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    81.9%fair odds 1.22

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
  1. 20'Yellow card: Tigran Barseghyan
  2. Goal: Mario Hermosoassist Daniele Ghilardi21'
  3. Goal: Nahuel Molina39'
  4. Goal: Niccolò Pisilliassist Donyell Malen52'
  5. Goal: Donyell Malenpenalty58'
  6. 65'Yellow card: Suleiman Camara
  7. 75'Yellow card: Cristian Martínez

Statistics

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
advantaged: 26Shots1
advantaged: 10Shots on target0
advantaged: 8Corners1
advantaged: %73Possession%27
10Fouls10
Starting XI and formation

Roma3-4-2-1

  1. 1Pierluigi Gollini
  2. 2Leonardo Balerdi
  3. 3Mario Hermoso
  4. 4Daniele Ghilardi
  5. 5Niccolò Pisilli
  6. 6Marten de Roon
  7. 7Wesley
  8. 8Nahuel Molina
  9. 9Donyell Malen
  10. 10Lorenzo Pellegrini
  11. 11Rodrigo Mora

ŠK Slovan Bratislava4-1-4-1

  1. 1Dominik Takac
  2. 2Svetozar Markovic
  3. 3Kenan Bajric
  4. 4Peter Pokorny
  5. 5Sandro Cruz
  6. 6César Blackman
  7. 7Artur Gajdos
  8. 8Rahim Ibrahim
  9. 9Suleiman Camara
  10. 10Tigran Barseghyan
  11. 11Nino Marcelli

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultRoma win%86it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%73it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%56it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 3.18–0.62 · score: 4–0

Form and standings

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
League tableadvantaged: 26. place 1 pts · 0W 1D 1L 36. place 0 pts · 0W 0D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LD0.5 pts/matchLL0.0 pts/match

Goals

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
Expected goalsadvantaged: 3.180.62

Match total 3.8

Clean sheet0/20/2
Luck+2.2 puan—

Players

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-1-4-1
ScorerDonyell Malen2 goalsSuleiman Camara1 goals
Most dangerousDonyell Malenexpected goals 5.4—
FinisherDonyell Malen+0.6 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperMile Svilarconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected—
Most cardsBryan Cristante1 yellowCésar Blackman1 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

RomaŠK Slovan Bratislava
RefereeSandro Schärer

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ROMA

  • European strength rating 1740 – 1397: Roma ahead by 343 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF ŠK SLOVAN BRATISLAVA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.