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Ligue 125 Oct 17:00 TRTREFEREE · FRANÇOIS LETEXIER

AS Monaco FC×Lille OSC

MATCH FINISHEDMonaco 1–1 Lille OSCHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 16:59 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Monaco: 36.4%fair odds 2.74
  • FT X · draw: 30.0%fair odds 3.33
  • FT 2 · Lille OSC: 33.5%fair odds 2.98

Double chance

  • 1X · Monaco doesn't lose:
    66.5%fair odds 1.50
    X2 · Lille OSC doesn't lose:
    63.6%fair odds 1.57
    12 · no draw:
    70.0%fair odds 1.43

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    53.4%fair odds 1.87
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    46.6%fair odds 2.14

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    53.3%fair odds 1.87
    BTTS No:
    46.7%fair odds 2.14

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    33.2%fair odds 3.01
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    66.8%fair odds 1.50

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

MonacoLille OSC
  1. 24'Goal: Ethan Mbappéassist Soriba Diaoune
  2. Yellow card: Mamadou Coulibaly32'
  3. 34'Yellow card: Hákon Haraldsson
  4. Yellow card: Mathys Detourbet56'
  5. 66'Red card: Tanguy Nianzou
  6. 66'Yellow card: Romain Perraud
  7. Goal: Edan Diopassist Jordan Teze74'
  8. Yellow card: Vanderson90+1'
  9. 90+2'Yellow card: Maxima Goffi
  10. 90+4'Yellow card: Berke Özer

Statistics

MonacoLille OSC
advantaged: 20Shots4
advantaged: 6Shots on target2
advantaged: 6Corners1
advantaged: %64Possession%37
18Fouls13
advantaged: 1.88Expected goals (xG)0.61

Shot map

Monaco

20 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.88

Lille OSC

4 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.61

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Monaco4-2-3-1

  1. 1Lukas Hradecky
  2. 2Jordan Teze
  3. 3Sadibou Sané
  4. 4Názinho
  5. 5Vanderson
  6. 6Aleksandr Golovin
  7. 7Denis Zakaria
  8. 8Lamine Camara
  9. 9Paris Brunner
  10. 10Ansu Fati
  11. 11Mamadou Coulibaly

Lille OSC4-3-3

  1. 1Berke Özer
  2. 2Alexsandro
  3. 3Tanguy Nianzou
  4. 4Romain Perraud
  5. 5Nathan Ngoy
  6. 6Nabil Bentaleb
  7. 7Benjamin André
  8. 8Ngal'ayel Mukau
  9. 9Hákon Haraldsson
  10. 10Soriba Diaoune
  11. 11Ethan Mbappé

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%30most likely: Monaco win %36
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%53it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%53it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.30–1.24 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.62–0.52 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

MonacoLille OSC
League table5. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L advantaged: 3. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L
Last 5 matchesLDWDW1.6 pts/matchadvantaged: DWLWW2.0 pts/match

Goals

MonacoLille OSC
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.301.24

Match total 2.5

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck+5.5 puan+3.7 puan

Players

MonacoLille OSC
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerParis Brunner4 goalsOlivier Giroud2 goals
Most dangerousParis Brunnerexpected goals 2.5Ethan Mbappéexpected goals 1.4
FinisherParis Brunner+1.5 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperLukas Hradeckyconceded 2.7 goals fewer than expectedBerke Özerconceded 1.9 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAleksandr Golovin3 yellowMaurits Kjaergaard2 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

MonacoLille OSC
RefereeFrançois Letexier

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MONACO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Monaco's attack is %5 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF LILLE OSC

  • Lille OSC concedes %20 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Monaco -0,64, Lille OSC +0,3
  • Strength rating 1584 – 1602: Lille OSC ahead by 18 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.