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Premier League24 Oct 17:00 TRT

Arsenal FC×Everton FC

MATCH FINISHEDArsenal 2–0 EvertonHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 16:29 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Arsenal: 68.0%fair odds 1.47
  • FT X · draw: 21.4%fair odds 4.67
  • FT 2 · Everton: 10.6%fair odds 9.45

Double chance

  • 1X · Arsenal doesn't lose:
    89.4%fair odds 1.12
    X2 · Everton doesn't lose:
    32.0%fair odds 3.13
    12 · no draw:
    78.6%fair odds 1.27

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.2%fair odds 2.16
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.8%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    46.6%fair odds 2.15
    BTTS No:
    53.4%fair odds 1.87

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.1%fair odds 3.43
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.9%fair odds 1.41

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

ArsenalEverton
  1. Goal: Ezri Konsaassist Viktor Gyökeres7'
  2. 45+2'Yellow card: Vitaliy Mykolenko
  3. Yellow card: Myles Lewis-Skelly58'
  4. 66'Yellow card: James Garner
  5. Goal: Gabriel Magalhãesassist Ben White68'
  6. 79'Yellow card: James Tarkowski

Statistics

ArsenalEverton
advantaged: 20Shots8
advantaged: 4Shots on target3
advantaged: 12Corners3
advantaged: %58Possession%42
11Fouls13
advantaged: 2.29Expected goals (xG)0.72

Shot map

Arsenal

20 shots · 2 goals · xG 2.29

Everton

8 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.72

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Arsenal4-2-3-1

  1. 1David Raya
  2. 2Gabriel Magalhães
  3. 3Ezri Konsa
  4. 4Myles Lewis-Skelly
  5. 5Ben White
  6. 6Martin Ødegaard
  7. 7Mikel Merino
  8. 8Declan Rice
  9. 9Viktor Gyökeres
  10. 10Eberechi Eze
  11. 11Noni Madueke

Everton4-2-3-1

  1. 1Jordan Pickford
  2. 2Jake O'Brien
  3. 3James Tarkowski
  4. 4Vitaliy Mykolenko
  5. 5Merlin Röhl
  6. 6Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
  7. 7James Garner
  8. 8Harrison Armstrong
  9. 9Thierno Barry
  10. 10Tyrique George
  11. 11Brennan Johnson

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultArsenal win%68it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%46most likely: 3 or more goals %54
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%53it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.10–0.73 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.90–0.60 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

ArsenalEverton
League tableadvantaged: 2. place 18 pts · 6W 0D 1L 9. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLWW2.4 pts/matchLDWDD1.2 pts/match

Goals

ArsenalEverton
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.100.73

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet2/52/5
Luck+5.0 puan−0.3 puan

Players

ArsenalEverton
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerBukayo Saka3 goalsThierno Barry3 goals
Most dangerousBukayo Sakaexpected goals 3.8Thierno Barryexpected goals 5.0
FinisherBukayo Saka−1.2 goals vs expectationThierno Barry−1.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperDavid Rayaconceded 0.5 goals fewer than expectedJordan Pickfordconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsChristos Tzolis2 yellowHarrison Armstrong3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ARSENAL

  • Arsenal concedes %30 fewer goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,55 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Arsenal's attack is %20 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1714 – 1498: Arsenal ahead by 216 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Everton's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF EVERTON

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.