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Ligue 125 Oct 19:15 TRT

Angers SCO×FC Lorient

MATCH FINISHEDAngers SCO 0–0 LorientHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 17:02 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Angers SCO: 27.4%fair odds 3.65
  • FT X · draw: 30.2%fair odds 3.31
  • FT 2 · Lorient: 42.4%fair odds 2.36

Double chance

  • 1X · Angers SCO doesn't lose:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74
    X2 · Lorient doesn't lose:
    72.6%fair odds 1.38
    12 · no draw:
    69.8%fair odds 1.43

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    55.5%fair odds 1.80
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    44.5%fair odds 2.25

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    50.9%fair odds 1.96
    BTTS No:
    49.1%fair odds 2.04

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    34.4%fair odds 2.91
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    65.6%fair odds 1.52

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Angers SCOLorient
  1. Yellow card: Yassin Belkhdim33'
  2. 85'Yellow card: Nathaniel Adjei

Statistics

Angers SCOLorient
8Shotsadvantaged: 10
advantaged: 5Shots on target1
6Cornersadvantaged: 7
%48Possessionadvantaged: %53
13Fouls9
0.34Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.05

Shot map

Angers SCO

8 shots · 0 goals · xG 0.34

Lorient

10 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.05

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Angers SCO5-3-2

  1. 1Anthony Lopes
  2. 2Ousmane Camara
  3. 3Jordan Lefort
  4. 4Carlens Arcus
  5. 5Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
  6. 6Lilian Raolisoa
  7. 7Branco van den Boomen
  8. 8Amine Sbaï
  9. 9Yassin Belkhdim
  10. 10Amine El Ouazzani
  11. 11Prosper Peter

Lorient3-4-2-1

  1. 1Yvon Mvogo
  2. 2Montassar Talbi
  3. 3Isaak Touré
  4. 4Nathaniel Adjei
  5. 5Noah Cadiou
  6. 6Arthur Avom
  7. 7Arsène Kouassi
  8. 8Dembo Sylla
  9. 9Ibrahima Baldé
  10. 10Souleymane Faye
  11. 11Jean-Victor Makengo

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%30most likely: Lorient win %42
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%56it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%49most likely: Both teams score %51

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.07–1.38 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.29–0.90 · score: 0–0

Form and standings

Angers SCOLorient
League table15. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 4L advantaged: 8. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 2L
Last 5 matchesLLWDL0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WWLDW2.0 pts/match

Goals

Angers SCOLorient
Expected goals1.07advantaged: 1.38

Match total 2.5

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck−0.8 puan+1.2 puan

Players

Angers SCOLorient
Starting XI · official5-3-23-4-2-1
ScorerAmine El Ouazzani2 goalsJean-Victor Makengo1 goals
Most dangerousAmine Sbaïexpected goals 1.3Mamadou Konéexpected goals 1.6
FinisherProsper Peter−0.3 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperAnthony Lopesconceded 0.8 goals fewer than expectedYvon Mvogoconceded 0.3 goals more than expected
Most cardsJordan Lefort1 yellow, 1 redArsène Kouassi2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ANGERS SCO

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Lorient's attack is %10 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF LORIENT

  • Angers SCO's attack is %21 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Angers SCO concedes %14 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1401 – 1519: Lorient ahead by 118 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Lorient concedes %7 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Angers SCO -0,8, Lorient +0,05

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.