Skip to content
Süper Lig23 Oct 20:00 TRT

Alanyaspor×Kocaelispor

MATCH FINISHEDAlanyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporHT 0–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:39 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Alanyaspor: 40.1%fair odds 2.49
  • FT X · draw: 35.0%fair odds 2.86
  • FT 2 · Kocaelispor: 24.9%fair odds 4.02

Double chance

  • 1X · Alanyaspor doesn't lose:
    75.1%fair odds 1.33
    X2 · Kocaelispor doesn't lose:
    59.9%fair odds 1.67
    12 · no draw:
    65.0%fair odds 1.54

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    69.4%fair odds 1.44
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    30.6%fair odds 3.27

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    39.6%fair odds 2.52
    BTTS No:
    60.4%fair odds 1.66

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    43.0%fair odds 2.32
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    57.0%fair odds 1.76

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

AlanyasporKocaelispor
  1. 27'Goal: Berkan Kutlu
  2. 42'Goal: Makana Baku
  3. 45+1'Yellow card: Emir Ortakaya
  4. Goal: Ruan52'
  5. Yellow card: Fatih Aksoy53'
  6. 81'Yellow card: Berkan Kutlu
  7. 86'Yellow card: Onur Öztonga
  8. Yellow card: Fidan Aliti90'
  9. Yellow card: Izzet Celik90+2'
  10. 90+3'Yellow card: Show

Statistics

AlanyasporKocaelispor
10Shotsadvantaged: 17
4Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
7Corners7
advantaged: %50Possession%50
16Fouls11
Starting XI and formation

Alanyaspor3-4-2-1

  1. 1Paulo Victor
  2. 2Fidan Aliti
  3. 3Fatih Aksoy
  4. 4Nuno Lima
  5. 5Baran Gezek
  6. 6Gaïus Makouta
  7. 7Ruan
  8. 8Florent Hadergjonaj
  9. 9Arda Usluoglu
  10. 10Ibrahim Kaya
  11. 11Ianis Hagi

Kocaelispor5-4-1

  1. 1Serhat Öztasdelen
  2. 2Emir Ortakaya
  3. 3Show
  4. 4Anfernee Dijksteel
  5. 5Rigoberto Rivas
  6. 6Ugur Kaan Yildiz
  7. 7Mahamadou Susoho
  8. 8Berkan Kutlu
  9. 9Makana Baku
  10. 10Gonçalo Santos Sousa
  11. 11Florian Ayé

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultKocaelispor win%25most likely: Alanyaspor win %40
3+ goals?3 or more goals%31most likely: 2 or fewer goals %69
Both teams to score?Both teams score%40most likely: At least one team doesn't score %60

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.11–0.82 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

AlanyasporKocaelispor
League table9. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 2L advantaged: 8. place 12 pts · 4W 0D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDWDW1.6 pts/matchLLWLW1.2 pts/match

Goals

AlanyasporKocaelispor
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.110.82

Match total 1.9

Clean sheet2/52/5

Players

AlanyasporKocaelispor
Starting XI · official3-4-34-3-3
ScorerArda Usluoglu2 goalsBerkan Kutlu3 goals
Most cardsMeschack Elia2 yellowMahamadou Susoho2 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ALANYASPOR

  • Kocaelispor's attack is %28 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,22
  • Alanyaspor concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1495 – 1478: Alanyaspor ahead by 16 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF KOCAELISPOR

  • Kocaelispor concedes %17 fewer goals than the league average
  • Alanyaspor's attack is %11 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.