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Ligue 125 Oct 19:15 TRT

AJ Auxerre×Le Mans FC

MATCH FINISHEDAJ Auxerre 1–1 Le MansHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 17:03 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · AJ Auxerre: 47.1%fair odds 2.12
  • FT X · draw: 26.5%fair odds 3.77
  • FT 2 · Le Mans: 26.3%fair odds 3.80

Double chance

  • 1X · AJ Auxerre doesn't lose:
    73.7%fair odds 1.36
    X2 · Le Mans doesn't lose:
    52.9%fair odds 1.89
    12 · no draw:
    73.5%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.9%fair odds 2.33
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.1%fair odds 1.75

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.1%fair odds 1.66
    BTTS No:
    39.9%fair odds 2.50

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.7%fair odds 3.61
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.3%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

AJ AuxerreLe Mans
  1. 21'Yellow card: Alexandre Lauray
  2. 26'Yellow card: Lucas Buades
  3. 48'Goal: Lucas Buadesassist Lucas Bretelle
  4. Goal: Cameron Archer56'
  5. Yellow card: Kévin Danois69'

Statistics

AJ AuxerreLe Mans
advantaged: 13Shots11
advantaged: 5Shots on target2
advantaged: 7Corners1
advantaged: %60Possession%40
15Fouls12
1.15Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.71

Shot map

AJ Auxerre

13 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.15

Le Mans

11 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.71

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

AJ Auxerre3-4-2-1

  1. 1Paul Nardi
  2. 2Axel Tuanzebe
  3. 3Clément Akpa
  4. 4Christ Makosso
  5. 5Kévin Danois
  6. 6Naouirou Ahamada
  7. 7Fredrik Oppegard
  8. 8Lamine Sy
  9. 9Cameron Archer
  10. 10Danny Namaso
  11. 11Romain Faivre

Le Mans3-1-4-2

  1. 1Nicolas Kocik
  2. 2Samuel Yohou
  3. 3Raúl Torrente
  4. 4Djibril Sidibé
  5. 5Alexandre Lauray
  6. 6Lucas Bretelle
  7. 7Antoine Rabillard
  8. 8Lucas Calodat
  9. 9Lucas Buades
  10. 10Habib Diallo
  11. 11Louis Mafouta

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%27most likely: AJ Auxerre win %47
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%43most likely: 3 or more goals %57
Both teams to score?Both teams score%60it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.73–1.25 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.98–1.29 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

AJ AuxerreLe Mans
League tableadvantaged: 13. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L 16. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WLWWL1.8 pts/matchLLWDD1.0 pts/match

Goals

AJ AuxerreLe Mans
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.731.25

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+0.8 puan−0.7 puan

Players

AJ AuxerreLe Mans
Starting XI · official3-4-2-13-1-4-2
ScorerCameron Archer4 goalsLouis Mafouta4 goals
Most dangerousDanny Namasoexpected goals 2.2Louis Mafoutaexpected goals 4.5
FinisherCameron Archer+1.4 goals vs expectationLouis Mafouta−0.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMamadou Diopconceded 5.5 goals more than expectedNicolas Kocikconceded 1.0 goals more than expected
Most cardsChrist Makosso1 yellow, 1 redDjibril Sidibé2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF AJ AUXERRE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Le Mans concedes %21 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: AJ Auxerre -0,17, Le Mans -0,67

IN FAVOUR OF LE MANS

  • AJ Auxerre's attack is %15 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.