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Premier League31 Oct 15:30 TRT

Chelsea FC×Manchester United FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Chelsea: 39.0%fair odds 2.57
  • FT X · draw: 27.0%fair odds 3.70
  • FT 2 · Manchester United: 34.0%fair odds 2.94

Double chance

  • 1X · Chelsea doesn't lose:
    66.0%fair odds 1.52
    X2 · Manchester United doesn't lose:
    61.0%fair odds 1.64
    12 · no draw:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    41.8%fair odds 2.39
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.2%fair odds 1.72

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    62.1%fair odds 1.61
    BTTS No:
    37.9%fair odds 2.64

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.2%fair odds 3.67
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.8%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ChelseaManchester United
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 3L 16. place 7 pts · 1W 4D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWWLD1.4 pts/matchLDDDL0.6 pts/match

Goals

ChelseaManchester United
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.571.45

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+3.0 puan−3.2 puan

Players

ChelseaManchester United
Last starting XI3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerJoão Pedro5 goalsBryan Mbeumo4 goals
Most dangerousCole Palmerexpected goals 1.7Bryan Mbeumoexpected goals 3.5
FinisherJoão Pedro+2.0 goals vs expectationBryan Mbeumo+0.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperEmiliano Martinezconceded 4.3 goals fewer than expectedSenne Lammensconceded 2.7 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsCole Palmer3 yellow, 1 redHarry Maguire3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CHELSEA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Chelsea's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Chelsea -0,39, Manchester United -0,6

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER UNITED

  • Manchester United's attack is %13 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Manchester United concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.