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Premier League31 Oct 18:00 TRT

Manchester City FC×Brighton & Hove Albion FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Manchester City: 56.3%fair odds 1.78
  • FT X · draw: 24.2%fair odds 4.12
  • FT 2 · Brighton & Hove Albion: 19.5%fair odds 5.13

Double chance

  • 1X · Manchester City doesn't lose:
    80.5%fair odds 1.24
    X2 · Brighton & Hove Albion doesn't lose:
    43.7%fair odds 2.29
    12 · no draw:
    75.8%fair odds 1.32

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    40.6%fair odds 2.46
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    59.4%fair odds 1.68

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.8%fair odds 1.70
    BTTS No:
    41.2%fair odds 2.43

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.5%fair odds 3.78
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.5%fair odds 1.36

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albion
League tableadvantaged: 1. place 21 pts · 7W 0D 1L 3. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 2L
Last 5 matchesLWWWW2.4 pts/matchLWWWW2.4 pts/match

Goals

Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albion
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.971.10

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 4/5
Luck+4.9 puan+1.5 puan

Players

Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albion
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerErling Haaland9 goalsPascal Gross3 goals
Most dangerousErling Haalandexpected goals 5.8Pascal Großexpected goals 1.6
FinisherErling Haaland+3.2 goals vs expectationCharalampos Kostoulas+0.5 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperGianluigi Donnarummaconceded 1.6 goals fewer than expectedBart Verbruggenconceded 4.2 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsPhil Foden1 yellow, 1 redPascal Struijk1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER CITY

  • Manchester City's attack is %32 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Manchester City concedes %16 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1709 – 1596: Manchester City ahead by 113 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

  • Brighton & Hove Albion concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average
  • Brighton & Hove Albion's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.