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Premier League31 Oct 18:00 TRT

Hull City AFC×Ipswich Town FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Hull City: 62.0%fair odds 1.61
  • FT X · draw: 22.9%fair odds 4.36
  • FT 2 · Ipswich Town: 15.0%fair odds 6.66

Double chance

  • 1X · Hull City doesn't lose:
    85.0%fair odds 1.18
    X2 · Ipswich Town doesn't lose:
    38.0%fair odds 2.63
    12 · no draw:
    77.1%fair odds 1.30

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.3%fair odds 1.84
    BTTS No:
    45.7%fair odds 2.19

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.3%fair odds 3.66
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.7%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Hull CityIpswich Town
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 2L 12. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 4L

Form favours Ipswich Town, the model favours Hull City. In the 733 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 53%, the form's side won 21%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesDLDLD0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: DLWLW1.4 pts/match

Goals

Hull CityIpswich Town
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.060.94

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck+1.9 puan+2.6 puan

Players

Hull CityIpswich Town
Last starting XI5-4-14-2-3-1
ScorerMohamed Belloumi3 goalsEmersonn2 goals
Most dangerousOliver McBurnieexpected goals 2.0Emersonnexpected goals 1.7
Finisher——
GoalkeeperKonstantinos Tzolakisconceded 3.2 goals fewer than expectedChristian Waltonconceded 0.1 goals more than expected
Most cardsMatt Crooks4 yellowFatawu Issahaku3 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF HULL CITY

  • Ipswich Town concedes %32 more goals than the league average
  • Ipswich Town's attack is %19 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Strength rating 1506 – 1357: Hull City ahead by 149 points — effect on expected goals %7Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Hull City -0,56, Ipswich Town -1,09

IN FAVOUR OF IPSWICH TOWN

  • Hull City's attack is %10 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.