Skip to content
Premier League31 Oct 18:00 TRT

Brentford FC×Nottingham Forest FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Brentford: 43.0%fair odds 2.33
  • FT X · draw: 28.0%fair odds 3.57
  • FT 2 · Nottingham Forest: 29.0%fair odds 3.45

Double chance

  • 1X · Brentford doesn't lose:
    71.0%fair odds 1.41
    X2 · Nottingham Forest doesn't lose:
    57.0%fair odds 1.75
    12 · no draw:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    47.1%fair odds 2.12
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    52.9%fair odds 1.89

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74
    BTTS No:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.9%fair odds 3.34
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.1%fair odds 1.43

ANALYSES

Form and standings

BrentfordNottingham Forest
League tableadvantaged: 6. place 11 pts · 2W 5D 1L 18. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DLDWD1.2 pts/matchDLLLW0.8 pts/match

Goals

BrentfordNottingham Forest
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.551.24

Match total 2.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−0.4 puan−8.4 puan

Players

BrentfordNottingham Forest
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerKevin Schade3 goalsDan Ndoye2 goals
Most dangerousThiagoexpected goals 2.9Dan Ndoyeexpected goals 2.6
FinisherThiago−1.3 goals vs expectationDan Ndoye−0.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperCaoimhin Kelleherconceded 0.2 goals more than expectedMatz Selsconceded 1.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsVitaly Janelt5 yellow, 1 redMurillo3 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BRENTFORD

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Brentford's attack is %9 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1547 – 1506: Brentford ahead by 41 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF NOTTINGHAM FOREST

  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Brentford -0,33, Nottingham Forest +1,12
  • Nottingham Forest concedes %5 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.