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Premier League31 Oct 18:00 TRT

AFC Bournemouth×Leeds United FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Bournemouth: 52.6%fair odds 1.90
  • FT X · draw: 25.7%fair odds 3.89
  • FT 2 · Leeds United: 21.7%fair odds 4.61

Double chance

  • 1X · Bournemouth doesn't lose:
    78.3%fair odds 1.28
    X2 · Leeds United doesn't lose:
    47.4%fair odds 2.11
    12 · no draw:
    74.3%fair odds 1.35

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.6%fair odds 2.29
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.4%fair odds 1.77

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.8%fair odds 1.73
    BTTS No:
    42.2%fair odds 2.37

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.0%fair odds 3.57
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

BournemouthLeeds United
League table13. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 3L advantaged: 7. place 11 pts · 2W 5D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLLD1.4 pts/matchDDLDW1.2 pts/match

Goals

BournemouthLeeds United
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.831.12

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet2/52/5
Luck−5.5 puan−0.2 puan

Players

BournemouthLeeds United
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerMarcus Tavernier5 goalsDominic Calvert-Lewin3 goals
Most dangerousMarcus Tavernierexpected goals 2.5Dominic Calvert-Lewinexpected goals 3.3
FinisherMarcus Tavernier+2.5 goals vs expectationDominic Calvert-Lewin−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperDjordje Petrovicconceded 4.3 goals more than expectedJames Traffordconceded 2.2 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAdam Smith3 yellowDominic Calvert-Lewin3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BOURNEMOUTH

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Bournemouth's attack is %13 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Bournemouth +1,54, Leeds United +0,14
  • Strength rating 1564 – 1521: Bournemouth ahead by 43 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF LEEDS UNITED

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.