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Premier League31 Oct 23:00 TRT

Aston Villa FC×Fulham FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Aston Villa: 44.9%fair odds 2.23
  • FT X · draw: 28.3%fair odds 3.54
  • FT 2 · Fulham: 26.9%fair odds 3.72

Double chance

  • 1X · Aston Villa doesn't lose:
    73.1%fair odds 1.37
    X2 · Fulham doesn't lose:
    55.1%fair odds 1.81
    12 · no draw:
    71.7%fair odds 1.39

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.9%fair odds 2.04
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    51.1%fair odds 1.96

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    55.8%fair odds 1.79
    BTTS No:
    44.2%fair odds 2.26

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.8%fair odds 3.24
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.2%fair odds 1.45

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Aston VillaFulham
League tableadvantaged: 9. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L 15. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDWL2.0 pts/matchWWLDD1.6 pts/match

Goals

Aston VillaFulham
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.561.16

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck+2.6 puan−3.0 puan

Players

Aston VillaFulham
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerNicolas Jackson4 goalsJosh King2 goals
Most dangerousNicolas Jacksonexpected goals 1.9Gonzalo Garcíaexpected goals 3.3
Finisher—Gonzalo García−2.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperZion Suzukiconceded 2.3 goals fewer than expectedBernd Lenoconceded 0.7 goals more than expected
Most cardsJoão Gomes2 yellow, 1 redJosh King3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ASTON VILLA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Fulham's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1561 – 1494: Aston Villa ahead by 67 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF FULHAM

  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Aston Villa -0,33, Fulham +0,31

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.