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LEAGUE / POINTS DESERVEDxG

DID THEY EARN
THEIR POINTS?

A team sometimes collects more points than the chances it created deserve — luck goes its way — and sometimes fewer. This table compares each team's real points with the points it deserves according to chance quality (xG).

01 · TABLE AND END OF SEASON02 · POINTS DESERVED

PREMIER LEAGUE · POINTS DESERVED

HOW TO READ IT

Arsenal collected 21 points in 8 matches. Judged by the quality of the chances it created and conceded, the points it deserves are 15.4. So it has 5.6 points more than that — luck has gone its way.

  • Points deserved: the sum of the expected points calculated in each match from the two teams' chance quality (xG).
  • If the Gap is positive (green) the team has collected more points than it deserves, if negative (red) fewer.
  • Why does it matter? In the past this gap did not last: points returned to the deserved level over time (below).
TEAMPLAYEDPOINTSDESERVEDGAPUNLUCKY ← → LUCKYSCORED / EXPECTEDCONCEDED / EXPECTED
Arsenal82115.4+5.613 / 14.95 / 8.1
Manchester City82116.2+4.820 / 18.99 / 10.0
Liverpool81511.8+3.211 / 11.88 / 10.7
Newcastle United8118.1+2.912 / 10.014 / 15.1
Chelsea81310.3+2.717 / 12.415 / 13.5
Ipswich8107.6+2.412 / 10.616 / 18.8
Aston Villa8118.6+2.49 / 9.612 / 15.3
Hull8108.2+1.89 / 9.38 / 14.0
Brighton81614.8+1.223 / 18.17 / 11.4
Leeds81110.9+0.19 / 10.96 / 10.8
Brentford81111.5−0.514 / 14.49 / 12.8
Everton81010.9−0.98 / 12.49 / 12.6
Crystal Palace878.6−1.69 / 12.519 / 17.3
Tottenham8910.7−1.78 / 9.810 / 11.7
Coventry868.5−2.56 / 8.215 / 12.4
Fulham8811.3−3.38 / 12.610 / 12.2
Manchester United8710.4−3.410 / 13.413 / 13.2
Sunderland859.8−4.86 / 12.114 / 15.9
Bournemouth8914.6−5.612 / 16.713 / 9.3
Nottingham Forest8614.5−8.56 / 15.710 / 9.0

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST? · 4 SEASONS · 5 LEAGUES

Teams that collected more points than deserved in the first 8 matches, in the next 10

2.02 → 1.60POINTS / MATCH

Their chances deserved 1.54 · 92 teams

Teams that collected fewer points than deserved in the first 8 matches, in the next 10

0.81 → 1.20POINTS / MATCH

Their chances deserved 1.27 · 115 teams

Luck did not last: in past seasons points moved back towards the level the chances deserved. The model's full track record (Turkish) →

Chance-quality (xG) data comes from Understat; each match's expected points are calculated from its xG values and summed over the season. There is no xG data for the Süper Lig, so this table does not exist for it. It is data analysis, not betting advice.