League: Table and End-of-Season Forecast

01 · TABLE AND END OF SEASON 02 · POINTS DESERVED

BUNDESLIGA · POINTS DESERVED

HOW TO READ IT

Elversberg collected 10 points in 7 matches. Judged by the quality of the chances it created and conceded, the points it deserves are 6.0. So it has 4.0 points more than that — luck has gone its way.

Points deserved: the sum of the expected points calculated in each match from the two teams' chance quality (xG).
If the Gap is positive (green) the team has collected more points than it deserves, if negative (red) fewer.
Why does it matter? In the past this gap did not last: points returned to the deserved level over time (below).

TEAM	PLAYED	POINTS	DESERVED	GAP	SCORED / EXPECTED	CONCEDED / EXPECTED
Elversberg	7	10	6.0	+4.0	12 / 11.3	15 / 17.8
Borussia Dortmund	7	17	13.7	+3.3	12 / 13.9	4 / 6.9
Hamburger SV	7	9	6.3	+2.7	6 / 7.5	16 / 14.1
Werder Bremen	7	12	9.4	+2.6	15 / 11.7	14 / 12.2
Freiburg	7	13	12.0	+1.0	16 / 12.3	9 / 9.4
Paderborn	7	8	7.0	+1.0	6 / 7.9	9 / 13.2
Augsburg	7	9	8.5	+0.5	17 / 16.3	13 / 18.0
Bayer Leverkusen	7	13	12.8	+0.2	16 / 15.0	12 / 10.0
Schalke 04	7	6	6.0	−0.0	4 / 7.8	7 / 14.6
Eintracht Frankfurt	7	8	8.4	−0.4	10 / 13.0	17 / 16.4
Union Berlin	7	6	6.5	−0.5	6 / 7.9	18 / 16.2
RasenBallsport Leipzig	7	12	12.7	−0.7	20 / 17.2	11 / 12.8
Bayern Munich	7	17	18.4	−1.4	25 / 25.9	6 / 6.5
Mainz 05	7	10	12.3	−2.3	16 / 16.1	13 / 11.8
VfB Stuttgart	7	6	8.4	−2.4	10 / 15.3	13 / 18.4
FC Cologne	7	8	10.7	−2.7	8 / 12.7	11 / 11.5
Hoffenheim	7	9	11.8	−2.8	14 / 15.0	14 / 11.0
Borussia M.Gladbach	7	3	6.5	−3.5	11 / 11.9	22 / 18.1

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE PAST? · 4 SEASONS · 5 LEAGUES

Teams that collected more points than deserved in the first 8 matches, in the next 10

2.02 → 1.60POINTS / MATCH

Their chances deserved 1.54 · 92 teams

Teams that collected fewer points than deserved in the first 8 matches, in the next 10

0.81 → 1.20POINTS / MATCH

Their chances deserved 1.27 · 115 teams

Luck did not last: in past seasons points moved back towards the level the chances deserved. The model's full track record (Turkish) →

Chance-quality (xG) data comes from Understat; each match's expected points are calculated from its xG values and summed over the season. There is no xG data for the Süper Lig, so this table does not exist for it. It is data analysis, not betting advice.