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Ligue 16 Nov 22:45 TRT

Toulouse FC×RC Strasbourg Alsace

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Toulouse: 50.1%fair odds 2.00
  • FT X · draw: 26.7%fair odds 3.75
  • FT 2 · Strasbourg Alsace: 23.2%fair odds 4.30

Double chance

  • 1X · Toulouse doesn't lose:
    76.8%fair odds 1.30
    X2 · Strasbourg Alsace doesn't lose:
    49.9%fair odds 2.00
    12 · no draw:
    73.3%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    45.8%fair odds 2.19
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    54.2%fair odds 1.84

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.1%fair odds 2.32

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.1%fair odds 3.43
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.9%fair odds 1.41

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ToulouseStrasbourg Alsace
League tableadvantaged: 11. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 2L 16. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DWDWD1.8 pts/matchLLLLD0.2 pts/match

Goals

ToulouseStrasbourg Alsace
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.731.12

Match total 2.9

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5
Luck−4.0 puan+0.3 puan

Players

ToulouseStrasbourg Alsace
Last starting XI4-4-24-2-3-1
ScorerCasper Tengstedt5 goalsGessime Yassine2 goals
Most dangerousCasper Tengstedtexpected goals 4.6Gessime Yassineexpected goals 1.1
FinisherCasper Tengstedt−0.3 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperGuillaume Restesconceded 1.1 goals more than expectedFilip Jorgensenconceded 2.4 goals more than expected
Most cardsCristian Cásseres Jr.3 yellowGessime Yassine3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF TOULOUSE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Toulouse concedes %11 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Toulouse +0,63, Strasbourg Alsace -0,75
  • Strasbourg Alsace concedes %6 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF STRASBOURG ALSACE

  • Strength rating 1512 – 1545: Strasbourg Alsace ahead by 32 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.