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Şampiyonlar Ligi4 Nov 20:45 TRT

PAE AEK×Real Madrid CF

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · PAE AEK: 4.4%fair odds 22.52
  • FT X · draw: 9.6%fair odds 10.38
  • FT 2 · Real Madrid: 85.9%fair odds 1.16

Double chance

  • 1X · PAE AEK doesn't lose:
    14.1%fair odds 7.11
    X2 · Real Madrid doesn't lose:
    95.6%fair odds 1.05
    12 · no draw:
    90.4%fair odds 1.11

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    27.3%fair odds 3.67
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    72.7%fair odds 1.38

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    44.7%fair odds 2.24
    BTTS No:
    55.3%fair odds 1.81

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    18.3%fair odds 5.47
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    81.7%fair odds 1.22

ANALYSES

Form and standings

PAE AEKReal Madrid
League table29. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 2L advantaged: 4. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 0L
Last 5 matchesLLW1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWLL1.8 pts/match

Goals

PAE AEKReal Madrid
Expected goals0.63advantaged: 3.15

Match total 3.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/30/5
Luck—+0.9 puan

Players

PAE AEKReal Madrid
Last starting XI4-4-24-2-3-1
ScorerStavros Pilios1 goalsKylian Mbappé3 goals
Most dangerous—Kylian Mbappe-Lottinexpected goals 10.0
Finisher—Kylian Mbappe-Lottin−1.0 goals vs expectation
Goalkeeper—Thibaut Courtoisconceded 0.7 goals more than expected
Most cardsBarnabás Varga1 yellowÁlvaro Carreras2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF PAE AEK

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF REAL MADRID

  • European strength rating 1414 – 1873: Real Madrid ahead by 459 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.